Saturday, 8 December 2012

Are you an emotional investor? Consider a turn-key portfolio fund


Written by: Preet Banerjee
Special to the Globe and Mail
Published November 9, 2012
A lot of investors have backed completely out of the stock markets for fear of heightened volatility. But reacting with emotion is the last thing an investor should do.

Many studies have shown that an inability to stick to an investment strategy during the bad times is a bigger drag on portfolio performance than the dreaded Management Expense Ratio. That goes for both active and passive strategies.

Studies of fund flows between equity and fixed income funds show that investors are constantly one step behind the game. They wait for stocks to do well before shifting money to stocks. After stocks have faired poorly, they sell them and pile into fixed income.

Buy low, sell high. It sounds easy to do in theory, but practice indicates it’s much easier to do the opposite.
For investors who have trouble keeping the emotion out of their investments, portfolio funds offer a simple, turn-key solution. Portfolio funds are managed collections of underlying funds designed to follow the principles of prudent portfolio construction: they are diversified, they allocate assets across equities and fixed income around the world, and they rebalance automatically.

The benefit of systematic rebalancing is that it keeps the portfolio aligned with its intended risk profile while helping to take the emotion out of rebalancing.

In sideways, choppy markets, systematic rebalancing can also help to eke out gains in your portfolio. While we’ve seen correlations between asset classes approach one during severe market events, correlations vary over time. It’s possible to have a 50/50 portfolio of stocks and bonds generate a positive return, even though they individually trend sideways over time.


Consider this chart:

Start
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Stock fund
100.00
110.00
107.00
98.00
100.00
Bond fund
100.00
95.00
99.00
102.00
100.00
50/50 Portfolio
100.00
102.50
103.26
100.48
100.52


Individually, the asset classes of stocks and bonds both generated flat returns over the entire time series, yet they were volatile along the way. Rebalancing nonetheless helped to capture a positive return for the portfolio.

If you’re having trouble rebalancing your portfolio yourself, consider a turn-key portfolio fund. They are available with active or passive investment management and can help prevent reduce the emotional interference your brain might run on your investments. By taking it partly out of your hands.


Avoid nightmare on retirement street: Pay off your mortgage


Just a few decades back, many thought it unthinkable to still be paying a mortgage during retirement. But a growing minority are now doing just that.

Whereas our parents paid off their mortgage in roughly 12 years on average, abou one in four homeowners are now carrying a mortgage into retirement. In fact, retirees are accumulating debt at three times the average pace.

Aversion to debt has clearly waned. Almost one-quarter of baby boomers say paying off their mortgage by retirement is “not very important” or “not at all important.” And more than half of Canadians expect to carry a mortgage into their golden years.

“My philosophy is to not carry any debt into retirement,” says retirement expert Gordon Pape. “But people today have a very casual attitude about it.”

So, just how big of a problem are mortgages in retirement? After all, places like Switzerland – which rivals Canada for the world’s strongest banking system – have 100-year “generational” mortgages. (What a way to get back at your kids!) And in a number of other prosperous European countries, interest-only mortgages – with theoretically infinite amortizations – are commonplace.

The threat posed by having a mortgage in retirement depends, not surprisingly, on the borrower’s income, savings, debt and other living expenses.

Statistically speaking, if you’re a typical married couple over 65, the latest government figures show that you take home about $46,000;combined each year. The median retiree’s mortgage is about $87,000. That implies a $411 monthly payment on a standard five-year fixed rate mortgage. That’s about 11 per cent of the typical retiree’s after-tax income, something that is easily tolerable.

On average, mortgages in retirement aren’t sending people to the poor house. Where it could get dicey, Mr. Pape says, is when interest rates rise. For a sizable minority without financial breathing room, “There is potential for real trouble down the road.”

For many single or lower income seniors, carrying a mortgage can be like walking in a minefield. All it takes is one misstep or personal crisis to explode your budget and fall behind on debt payments.

A couple relying 100 per cent on Old Age Security, for example, will earn a maximum of $26,800 annually in Ontario. In this case, that “typical” $411 mortgage payment would account for 18 per cent of their income. While unlikely anytime soon, a three percentage point interest rate hike would bump that to 25 per cent. Then you have to add in the property taxes, maintenance and all the other home ownership costs.

It’s bad enough assuming they just have the average-sized retiree mortgage. If they’re closer to the average Canadian mortgage of $170,000 and their income is in the lower third of the population, then well over half of their income would be consumed by home ownership costs. That is simply unmanageable and unfortunately there is no data on how many people are in this boat.

Apart from the cost, it’s often tougher to get approved for a decent mortgage in retirement. If your earning power has waned and you’re carrying even an average debt load, your ability to tap home equity for cash could be limited. Qualification challenges could even reduce your options to switch lenders or port your mortgage to a different house.

Even the “mortgage of last resort,” a reverse mortgage, could be off the table if you’re not old enough and/or you have an existing mortgage that’s more than 25-40 per cent of your home value.
So that brings us to the next question: what solutions do seniors have?

One is to work longer. Our neighbourhood butcher is still employed at 89 and that may not be so unusual going forward. Many Canadians expect to work past 65. They’re working 3.5 years longer than a decade ago and only 30 per cent anticipate being fully retired at age 66.

“If you have to work a few years past your retirement target date, do it and get rid of debt,” says Mr. Pape.
Another option for mortgage-holders is to get a fixed rate with a five-year term or longer. That protects those on fixed incomes from payment hikes. If you’re facing an underfunded retirement and you have a mortgage, “I would lock in a low rate while you still can,” he recommends.

You could also extend your amortization to 30 years. That maximizes cash flow in retirement and lets you make extra payments when you’re able. Couple this strategy with a home equity line of credit (HELOC) and you’ll get an emergency source of cash for unforeseen events like medical expenses or income loss. A “readvanceable” HELOC also lets you re-borrow any extra pre-payments if absolutely necessary, which lessens the cash flow risk of making them.

Despite these tips, the goal isn’t to manage a mortgage in retirement. It’s to avoid a retirement mortgage altogether. And to do that, you’ll need to start young.

The chilling truth is that there are just over 9.3 million Canadians age 55 and over and 43 per cent of them say they haven’t saved enough for retirement. But by 55, time is running out. A Statistics Canada study in 2009 found that people in their 70s spend only five per cent less than they did in their 40s. It takes years of saving to replace that kind of income and dispose of a mortgage.

By now, you’ve probably sensed that being pro-active is key. But many people haven’t been. As many as one in three say they plan to live off the equity in their homes. That’s a gamble in any real estate market. But if you’re retiring in the next decade and relying on uncertain home price appreciation, it’s especially risky. You need diversified savings and you need that mortgage out of the way.

Robert McLister is the editor of CanadianMortgageTrends .com and a mortgage planner at Mortgage Architects. You can also follow him on twitter.
© 2012 The Globe and Mail Inc. All Rights Reserved.

IPG Completes its 2012 Annual Education Conference for Financial Advisors


The 2012 IPG Annual Education Conference was held during the weekend of October 11th to 14th in the beautiful Park Hyatt Hotel in downtown Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The event had about 220 people in attendance with a strong educational content for IPG financial advisors. As in previous years, all IPG financial advisors must pay for their own travel and accommodation expenses to attend our conference.

Each year, our tight weekend schedule includes approximately 20 hours of superior educational content that is structured around financial planning mandates, compliance matters, asset management and new technology tools that will help IPG financial advisors in providing more value to their clients. This year was no exception!

We were proud to announce the following award winners this year: Associate of the Year Award was presented to Bona Savone, the branch office of the year was presented to our Sault Ste.Marie office and the administrator of the year was presented to Wendy Molinaro in our Sault Ste.Marie branch office. Congratulations to everyone.

For many years, our conference has been considered one of the best in the industry from an educational and networking point of view. We are extremely fortunate that our sponsors go out of their way to support us by having their top level experts speak on many relevant and timely topics.